Fri Mar 17 2023

amit sinha
2 min readMar 17, 2023

BTC briefly touched $27k before opening at $26.7k this morning. BTC is up 60% year to date and 30% week to date, but it is still down 35% from a year ago.BTC dominance has increased to 47% while the global market cap has increased to $1.09 trillion. ETH relatively underperformed opening at $1.72k even though the developers announced April 12 as the official target date for Ethereum’s Shanghai hard fork. The ARB airdrop to the community has been announced and is scheduled for March 23. More than $90 million of short futures got liquidated in the current move.

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The ECB delivered on its promise of a 50 bps hike yesterday, while the Fed is most likely to come out with a 25 bps hike. Also welcome to a triple witching Friday, and look forward to more volatility in an already volatile week. The macro environment has seen some predictable moves in the US: housing starts increased as mortgage rates went down, the 2Y10Y inversion decreased from historic levels, and oil prices are retreating (OPEC still on the sidelines and US strategic reserves still seeing a shortfall). The BTFP program is another way of adding liquidity (aka easing); the PBoC also did the same by announcing a cut in reserve ratio.

In the ongoing banking saga, five major banks are doling out $5 billion each to shore up First Republic Bank. The FDIC has denied the claims that it wants the buyer to be “cyber-free’. Also, the FDIC has reiterated that this is one time only, and any uninsured depositors in future failed banks should not expect the same coverage. Fed’s discount window is doing great business as banks try to shore up reserves. On a positive front, FedNow, a 24-by-7 instant payment and settlement system offered by the Fed, will go live in July. Fidelity went live with giving retail access to crypto majors on its platform. On the legal front, the judge has denied any pause in Voyager’s sale. Genesis is requesting a plan and timetable for the sale.

Authorities in Germany and the US have seized the assets of ChipMixer, which is accused of laundering 150k bitcoins. State Street is cutting business ties with crypto custodian Copper, with each focusing on its own business. SEC chairman Gary Gensler is sticking to his claim that proof-of-stake makes a token a security. Marathon Digital has posted a 58% YoY drop in revenue in Q4 and a 26% overall decline for 2022.

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amit sinha

digital assets and macro trader | 20 years of credit and rates experience